Forecasting environment · simulated markets

Predict the shiftbefore the market tips.

Forecast with practice credits, build a public record, and earn Merit Points without real-money exposure. Precision tools for the predictive mind.

Start predicting Explore markets

Likelihood A

Likelihood B

Evidence shift +0.024

Calibration 88.4%

Simulated balance: 10,000 credits
Financial exposure: No real-money risk
Public record: Every call preserved
Progression: MP → badge tiers

Signal log

Will Solana sustain more than 5,000 non-vote TPS for a full day by March 2027?58%−2.0Closes Mar 31 Will a redesigned local fee-market mechanism activate on Solana mainnet by May 2027?44%+5.0Closes May 31 Will median Solana transaction finality remain below 10 seconds for 30 days?73%+1.0Closes in 10 days Will a compressed-state protocol revision reach 20 million monthly operations by April 2027?62%+2.0Closes Apr 30 Will a general-purpose zero-knowledge verifier be available on Solana mainnet by Q1 2027?49%+4.0Closes Mar 31 Will intent-based routing handle 25% of simulated Solana DEX volume by year-end?41%−1.0Closes Dec 31 Will a hypothetical liquid-staking v2 standard complete two independent audits by November?79%+2.0Closes Nov 30 Will the simulated SOL reference index close above 250 before January 2027?52%−3.0Closes Dec 31 Will a hypothetical validator-incentive token approve a supply reduction by December?64%+1.0Closes Dec 15 Will fictional Solana stablecoin Z exceed 5 billion units in circulating supply?36%+6.0Closes Jun 30

Will Solana sustain more than 5,000 non-vote TPS for a full day by March 2027?58%−2.0Closes Mar 31Will a redesigned local fee-market mechanism activate on Solana mainnet by May 2027?44%+5.0Closes May 31Will median Solana transaction finality remain below 10 seconds for 30 days?73%+1.0Closes in 10 daysWill a compressed-state protocol revision reach 20 million monthly operations by April 2027?62%+2.0Closes Apr 30Will a general-purpose zero-knowledge verifier be available on Solana mainnet by Q1 2027?49%+4.0Closes Mar 31Will intent-based routing handle 25% of simulated Solana DEX volume by year-end?41%−1.0Closes Dec 31Will a hypothetical liquid-staking v2 standard complete two independent audits by November?79%+2.0Closes Nov 30Will the simulated SOL reference index close above 250 before January 2027?52%−3.0Closes Dec 31Will a hypothetical validator-incentive token approve a supply reduction by December?64%+1.0Closes Dec 15Will fictional Solana stablecoin Z exceed 5 billion units in circulating supply?36%+6.0Closes Jun 30

01Primary forecasts

Read the strongest signals without losing the evidence.

One market gets the full decision surface. Nearby forecasts remain compact enough to compare at a glance.

Browse every market

SolanaHighest-conviction signal

Will alternative validator clients exceed 35% of Solana stake by Q2 2027?

This simulated market tracks whether client diversity reaches a material network-security milestone. It is a hypothetical forecasting prompt, not a statement from any validator team.

Forecasters: 1.8K
Resolution window: Closes Jun 30
Practice volume: 486,300 cr

Yes probability

67%

+3.0 pts24h

0Equilibrium 50100

Record your forecast

Tokens

Supporting signal

Will the simulated SOL reference index close above 250 before January 2027?

Yes probability

52%

−3.0 pts24h

0Equilibrium 50100

2.1K forecastsCloses Dec 31

Ecosystem

Supporting signal

Will a Solana-oriented mobile app reach one million simulated monthly users by June 2027?

Yes probability

61%

+3.0 pts24h

0Equilibrium 50100

1.1K forecastsCloses Jun 30

02Market taxonomy

Ten fields. One probability language.

Move from protocol mechanics to culture, sport, and world events without relearning how to read the signal.

Field 01

Active fieldSolana68% average Yes · +18 pts from equilibrium

Open field

03Forecast lifecycle

A forecast starts uncertain.The record makes it useful.

Equinox converts one practice decision into a durable public signal. No shortcuts, hidden resets, or real-money exposure.

Sequence

01-05

Exposure

Practice only

Begin your record

Stage 01 · Seed
Output: A clean starting point
10K
Receive a simulated balance
Begin with 10,000 practice credits and zero real-money exposure.
Stage 02 · Decision
Output: A timestamped forecast
Y/N
Record what you believe
Choose Yes or No while preserving the probability and evidence you observed.
Stage 03 · History
Output: Inspectable calibration
94.6
Build a public record
Every resolved call adds context to a transparent forecasting history.
Stage 04 · Merit
Output: Visible progression
+MP
Turn consistency into progress
Participation and correct resolutions add Merit Points to your profile.
Stage 05 · Proof
Output: Collectible proof of skill
ECL
Unlock a material signal
Advance through Dawn, Dusk, and Eclipse as your practice record compounds.

04Merit observatory

Your discipline leaves a visible record.

Inspect each material state. Your MP determines what is earned; the observatory shows what comes next.

View all badge tiers

Preview calibration

Dawn tier · 0 MP

0 MP earned1,000 MP to next tier

Inspecting Dawn

Participation becomes visible

How MP works

05Forecasting credibility

A public record is harder to fake than confidence.

Accuracy, resolved calls, and badge status turn forecasting skill into something inspectable.

Open full leaderboard

RankForecasterAccuracyResolvedStreakMeritMove

01·

@orbitseereclipse forecaster

Accuracy: 94.6%
Resolved: 184
Streak: 12
MP: 48,720 MP

02+2

@quorumkiteeclipse forecaster

Accuracy: 92.8%
Resolved: 161
Streak: 9
MP: 44,380 MP

03−1

@slotclockeclipse forecaster

Accuracy: 91.4%
Resolved: 203
Streak: 7
MP: 42,950 MP

−1

04+1

@heliographdusk forecaster

Accuracy: 89.7%
Resolved: 147
Streak: 10
MP: 38,640 MP

05−2

@epochalmanacdusk forecaster

Accuracy: 88.9%
Resolved: 176
Streak: 5
MP: 36,910 MP

−2

Your next call becomes part of the record

Make uncertainty legible.

Form a view, record your confidence, and let the resolved outcome sharpen what you see next.

Start predicting Explore markets

Practice credits

No real-money exposure

Public record

Every resolved call preserved

Merit progression

Calibration earns MP

Forecasting environment · simulated markets

Predict the shiftbefore the market tips.

Forecast with practice credits, build a public record, and earn Merit Points without real-money exposure. Precision tools for the predictive mind.

Start predicting Explore markets

Likelihood A

Likelihood B

Evidence shift +0.024

Calibration 88.4%

Simulated balance: 10,000 credits
Financial exposure: No real-money risk
Public record: Every call preserved
Progression: MP → badge tiers

Signal log

Will Solana sustain more than 5,000 non-vote TPS for a full day by March 2027?58%−2.0Closes Mar 31Will a redesigned local fee-market mechanism activate on Solana mainnet by May 2027?44%+5.0Closes May 31Will median Solana transaction finality remain below 10 seconds for 30 days?73%+1.0Closes in 10 daysWill a compressed-state protocol revision reach 20 million monthly operations by April 2027?62%+2.0Closes Apr 30Will a general-purpose zero-knowledge verifier be available on Solana mainnet by Q1 2027?49%+4.0Closes Mar 31Will intent-based routing handle 25% of simulated Solana DEX volume by year-end?41%−1.0Closes Dec 31Will a hypothetical liquid-staking v2 standard complete two independent audits by November?79%+2.0Closes Nov 30Will the simulated SOL reference index close above 250 before January 2027?52%−3.0Closes Dec 31Will a hypothetical validator-incentive token approve a supply reduction by December?64%+1.0Closes Dec 15Will fictional Solana stablecoin Z exceed 5 billion units in circulating supply?36%+6.0Closes Jun 30

01Primary forecasts

Read the strongest signals without losing the evidence.

One market gets the full decision surface. Nearby forecasts remain compact enough to compare at a glance.

Browse every market

SolanaHighest-conviction signal

Will alternative validator clients exceed 35% of Solana stake by Q2 2027?

This simulated market tracks whether client diversity reaches a material network-security milestone. It is a hypothetical forecasting prompt, not a statement from any validator team.

Forecasters: 1.8K
Resolution window: Closes Jun 30
Practice volume: 486,300 cr

Yes probability

67%

+3.0 pts24h

0Equilibrium 50100

Record your forecast

Tokens

Supporting signal

Will the simulated SOL reference index close above 250 before January 2027?

Yes probability

52%

−3.0 pts24h

0Equilibrium 50100

2.1K forecastsCloses Dec 31

Ecosystem

Supporting signal

Will a Solana-oriented mobile app reach one million simulated monthly users by June 2027?

Yes probability

61%

+3.0 pts24h

0Equilibrium 50100

1.1K forecastsCloses Jun 30

02Market taxonomy

Ten fields. One probability language.

Move from protocol mechanics to culture, sport, and world events without relearning how to read the signal.

Field 01

Solana

5 markets68% avg. Yes

Field 02

Protocols

5 markets46% avg. Yes

Field 03

Governance

4 markets69% avg. Yes

Field 04

Tokens

4 markets63% avg. Yes

Field 05

Ecosystem

5 markets40% avg. Yes

Field 06

Crypto

4 markets47% avg. Yes

Field 07

Culture

4 markets45% avg. Yes

Field 08

Technology

4 markets56% avg. Yes

Field 09

Sports

3 markets42% avg. Yes

Field 10

World

4 markets66% avg. Yes

Active fieldSolana68% average Yes · +18 pts from equilibrium

Open field

03Forecast lifecycle

A forecast starts uncertain.The record makes it useful.

Equinox converts one practice decision into a durable public signal. No shortcuts, hidden resets, or real-money exposure.

Sequence

01-05

Exposure

Practice only

Begin your record

Stage 01 · Seed
Output: A clean starting point
10K
Receive a simulated balance
Begin with 10,000 practice credits and zero real-money exposure.
Stage 02 · Decision
Output: A timestamped forecast
Y/N
Record what you believe
Choose Yes or No while preserving the probability and evidence you observed.
Stage 03 · History
Output: Inspectable calibration
94.6
Build a public record
Every resolved call adds context to a transparent forecasting history.
Stage 04 · Merit
Output: Visible progression
+MP
Turn consistency into progress
Participation and correct resolutions add Merit Points to your profile.
Stage 05 · Proof
Output: Collectible proof of skill
ECL
Unlock a material signal
Advance through Dawn, Dusk, and Eclipse as your practice record compounds.